Russia-Ukraine War Updates
Moscow, Russia – As the first anniversary of the war in Ukraine approaches on Friday, Al Jazeera spoke to Pavel Felgenhauer, a Russian defence analyst who served as a senior research officer in the Soviet Academy of Sciences.
Felgenhauer, who has published widely on Russian foreign and defence policies, military doctrine, arms trade and the military-industrial complex, believes the war is likely to escalate but could end this year.
According to him, after 12 months of bloody battles, “the intensity of the fighting is too high for it to be maintained for long”.
Which side will ultimately seize a decisive victory?
Like most experts, he says it is simply unpredictable.
Al Jazeera: Why do you think an escalation is imminent?
Pavel Felgenhauer: We cannot totally predict everything. But I believe that an escalation right now is imminent. An escalation in the fighting; everyone is talking about a Russian offensive. Western military commanders in Brussels are also talking about how the Ukrainians should go on the offensive. General Mark Milley [Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff], who a year ago was talking about how Kyiv could fall in couple of days, now says that Russia has lost strategically, operationally and tactically, and Ukraine should sort of go out to finish them off.
Source: Al Jazeera
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